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內外受敵---馬英九面面觀(五)

       在勝選後的記者會上,馬英九說,雖然當選,但自己難有笑容,因為日後的工作有如千斤重擔。這種內心表白,大有先天下之憂而憂的意味,令人為他的承擔感而折服。不過,從另外一個角度去了解,也未嘗不可以把這種千斤重擔的壓力感解釋為:他上台後將會內外受敵,而這種內外受敵的困難處境正是壓力的來源。

  

       最外一層的角力對手,自是北京政府。馬英九在23日的記者會上說,對岸是威脅,也是機會。可以想見的是,馬政府與北京的經濟談判將會較為順利,開放讓大陸客到台旅遊的政策,將有利於台灣旅遊業,但是政治談判則會十分困難。

  

       說到底,兩岸的政治談判將無法迴避一中的問題。對於馬英九,在「不統」的政策下和在「不能讓台灣民眾感到他有賣台傾向」的情況下,必然反對一中。對於北京,在絕不能從一中原則撤退的情況下,必然把台灣與北京的關係視為中央與地方的關係(即香港與北京目前的關係),但這種關係卻是台灣所不能接受的。因此,兩岸的政治談判不談則已,只要展開談判,馬英九就會受到一中原則的壓制。

  

       馬英九的另外一個角力對手自是民進黨。相對於北京政府,民進黨是馬政府在台灣的內敵;從執政黨的角度去看,民進黨則是馬政府和國民黨的外敵。馬英九日後與北京的所有談判,都會受到民進黨的密切監視,都可能被批評為「賣台」。除了民進黨,民進黨背後的五百萬選民「基本盤」,對於馬英九,將是更大的壓力。

  

       民進黨敗選後,必然調整路線,在原來的「台灣主體性」主張以外,再醞釀出願與北京對話的較理性路線,希望能夠爭取「基本盤」以外的中間選民支持,以圖捲土重來。重新出發的民進黨,戰鬥力勢必加強,四年後將是馬英九和國民黨的強大對手。

  

       馬英九的最大敵人,可能不是北京和民進黨,而是國民黨內的爭權者。現在選舉剛過,黨內的團結之聲當然壓倒一切,但時間一久,加上府會兩權同時掌握在手上,分化和權爭必將出現。由於前兩次總統選舉失利,所以這次才暫時團結,但選舉過後,並沒有任何證據足以顯示,過去的分化和權爭不會重現。

  

       另外,對於馬英九的兩岸政策,國民黨內必有不同聲音(對於與大陸合作,有程度上的分別)。還有,馬英九如果按照競選承諾去積極推行「廉能政府」,國民黨內那些忍了八年、以為現在輪到自己掌權、不排除出現濫權情況的無能官員,將很有可能形成反彈暗流。

  

       總而言之,未來四年,馬英九較易於在兩岸關係和經濟取得改善,但在政治方面則內外受敵,而對於在明處的北京和民進黨,還可據理力爭,對於在暗處的國民黨內敵對勢力,將更難於處理。

  

       筆者十年前移居灣區,所住的房子建於40年前,屋頂、地板、浴室、門窗…不停要整修,真是弊病百端,一想起就頭痛。不過,屋後有一片山坡,遠處又可望到金山灣,因此仍是可以定居之地。

  

       台灣也一樣,雖在民主發展過程中出現無數弊端,但仍是個寶地--不僅人才眾多,經濟上工農業有良好基礎,政治上又走上了民主的康莊大道(剛剛還掌握到以選票把貪腐無能者趕下台的寶貴民主經驗)。台灣仍是個大有作為的地方。(世界日報,3.25.2008)

本網誌刊登之內容為作者個人自行提供上傳,不代表 World Journal 立場。

留言

Hi, Steven: You have said what I want to say. I agree with you. DPP's worst enemy, themselves made them the opposition party again. However, by the same token, the KMT's internal scramble for power(positions) will be one of the problems Ma faces later. After Ma, how about Hsiao, Wu, Wang, Wu D.y., Chang, even Lien and Soong and some legislators....I only gave you a few. From 1970 to 1985, I saw too many "Tsui-Tai-Ching", some of them were Ph.Ds and Professors, taking side and scrambling for positions.

Get rid of Wang Jinpin. He is a black gold.

My friend, it is difficult to get rid of Wang Jinping. This guy will make allies with politicans in Kaohsiun, Tainan and the Legislative Yuan, even Lien. I hate to see some Super-presidents are over the real president.

Democracy can be very unhealthy because criticism will come from all sides. That poor Ma Yinjoe will have to brave them with poise and pride.

  上任當務之急在,收拾民進黨留下的爛子.
  整頓政風,重新中央部會和金融體系人事安排,儘早完成核四等重大工程,及全面加強全台區域防洪排水設施,以迎接即將到來的颱風和洪水,比兩岸談判要迫切的多.

Ma was lucky and wise enough to choose Mr. Hsiao as his vice. Had Wang Jinpin agreed to run as a vice, Ma would have probably lost the race.

The two pilars of democracy are equality and justice. If Ma wants to venerate Taiwan, he must enforce the law upon everything.

Wang is really a trouble maker.

According to Ma's politcal principles, he is going to let the legislative Yuan operate independently. So, Wang would certainly get a lot power and influence.

What's the best way for Taiwan to deal with this Wang guy? How should Ma deal with Wang? What do you think?

同意文見明所說的當前急務是內政重於兩岸談判。但不同意要去收拾民進黨留下的爛攤子,因為馬英九無須理會民進黨那一套,只須推行自己的那一套就可以了。

整頓政風,是馬政府當然之務,但偏偏最難行,因為國民黨之爛和台灣政界之爛,實在難抱希望。

Ma said he would honor the 1992 Consensus which is "one China, two system". But Chinese government interprets it as "Taiwan is a part of China".

Ma has already said that there would be no peace discussion if those missiles aimed at Taiwan are not removed. So even for 3-tong and common market, China will not let loose easily if Taiwan is not yielding to China's demand.

Gather the evidence and persecute Wang, if Ma has guts.

輿論都說微笑老蕭在經濟事務上如何了得,但老實說他並沒有經濟政績,因此此人仍有待觀察。至於說以他為副手是馬勝選的要因,那絕對是過譽,因為這次馬勝選的最大原因是人民對貪污無能失望,老蕭最多只是對馬的選舉沒有造成破壞而已。

Ma's guts is not going to be used for persecuting Wang. Don't forget that the executive branch of the government should not interfere the legislature and the judicial.

Thank you, my friend, "Lao Hsiao, you are a humble man. I don't see "Smiling Old Hsiao" made any contribution to Taiwan either. As I said many many times, because of the situation was on KMT's side,, any one in KMT would win the election. Lien, Soong, Ma, Wu, Wang, Kwang C, Chand S.P., Hau, Chou, Ting, Chou, Lee, even Lin Yan-Kang... you name it. Ma is a scholar/professor, not a politician, I am sweating for him.

My friends, Mr.Jiang and Mr. HU: Somebody asked me how to get rid of Wang? I have no idea at this moment. Please help! One more thing, do you guys think of some other ambitious politicans who smell the blood?

台灣過去二三十年應該培養了不少新生代的人才,為什麼都不見出頭?為什麼像馬英九那樣有別於那些人的人那麼少?連宋王等實在應該徹底自我消失。

One more thing, my friends, Lee Teng-hui and Dirty Soong were father-son, and finally, broken up. You don't want to see Wu Po-hsiun and Ma Ying-joul are father-son like, and finally broken up.

Hi, Peter, it won't happen because Lee and Soong are 2 dirty Dicks, and Wu (who suffered from a stroke years ago) and Ma are, as you said, a scholar/gentleman like. Let's wait and see.

胡說八道, it's the judicial Yuan's job to indict the offenders.

That dirty Soong kicked Lee into the Chair of KMT. Then he spinned off to run for the presidency. Then he agreed to team up with Lien. All but lost, even in his bid for the mayor of Taipei. He is a loser. He ought to vanish from the political circle.

Yes, Dirty Soong must vanish and be kicked out.

各位台灣通,請問國民黨及民進黨有無一些新生代是值得留意的?

套一句馬英九自己的話,國民黨未來面對的將是一個颱風過後的災後重建階段.責任當然重大,任重自然道遠.這也是一個表現政績的大好機會.
至於一中,雙方既可各自表述,那就沒有中央與地方的問題.台灣不朝台獨的路走,中共也不急於統一,未來的談判,真是一條值得嘗試的路.

Dear Friend, "New Generation": In Taiwan,seniority is the key point for the new generation to move up. If the old goats do not retire the new ones will never have a chance to join the party(the government).

Is it tough for Mar to keep a clean administration?? Hope not.

Ma and Mao are both Hunanese.

真搞不懂:科学家李远哲先生为什么一而再地为政客站台?

Anonymous,
Ma was born in Hong Kong in 1950.


  民進黨“大選”慘敗,謝長廷將辭去黨主席。未來,面對民進黨主席這燙手山芋,誰來接?這爛攤子誰來收?選後才幾天,民進黨台面下已是暗潮洶湧,蘇貞昌真是進退兩難啊!

Mar was born in Hong Kong. His parents came from Hunan, stayed in Hong Kong and moved to Taiwan.

李远哲支持台獨

李登輝是黑金教主

As far as I know, Ma is Hongkongese, Mao is Hunanese, Wang Jinpin is Taiwanese and Lee Teng-hui is Japanese.

只要選擇台灣、愛台灣就是真正的台灣人

---- 準總統馬英九,為了化解台灣社會長期被民進黨與扁總統所挑起的省籍情結與族群對立,相當難得的以詼諧的口吻表示,他在戰亂的年代出生在香港,本身沒有辦法選擇出生地,但卻是如假包換「台灣製造、香港交貨的台灣人」贏得鄉親哄堂大笑。

  儘管外界認為馬英九是外省第二代,但是馬英九卻強調,在他心中認為自己是第一代的台灣人,呼籲在他當選後,台灣社會就應該解除省籍與族群的魔咒,只要選擇台灣、愛台灣就是真正的台灣人。

  

周美青原來也是在香港出生,是Hongkongese,和馬英九真是绝配.

President Ma, when you were born in HK in 1950(1949), I was 5 years old as a refugee at "Dio-Jin-Lin"(refugee camp). You were lucky and moved to Taiwan with your family later. I had a terrible childhood for 5 years then moved to Taiwan in 1953. Well, I don't know what I am saying! Man's fate is different.

Ha, Ha, we are all Chinese, aren't we?, except Dumn Dumn Lee.

From a report on 3/26, on WJ that Ma will call on Lee Deng-hui on 3/27.

I don't quite understand that why Ma is going to meet with Lee, the first heavy-weight politican, but not Lien? There must be some reason. Does Ma still hate Lien who supported Wang Jinping?

My answer to the blog friend Peter Hsu | March 26, 2008 01:00 PM
大概是既然贏了大選﹐ 就大融合吧﹐ 政壇上本來就沒有永遠的敵人﹐ 就先拜訪輩
分高的前總統﹐ 馬一向心胸寬厚﹐ 為人厚道﹗ 這不僅是為他自己好﹐ 也是為全台
灣人民好吧﹗﹗﹗﹖﹖﹖如觀點有誤請指正

贊成大融合的說法,不僅因為馬宅心仁厚,也因為可以減少阻力。

My friends Big Harmony and Catherine: You both are quite all right, thank you. I take your points. However, I am still waiting to see that when Ma will meet Lien? No any clue yet.

To my friends: One thing bothers me is that the reason Ma has not yet met with Lien, Wang and Soong is because "they don't want to meet with him. Even Mr expressed his intention." In their eyes, Ma is too junior. Therefore, Ma went to see Lee. Oh, my God, my dear president Ma, do you know millions and millions people hate this has-been old fox? What did you get from Lee? Nothing, only a sentence-- clean government? I can give you this advise too. Where are the heavy-weight people in KMT?

Mar prioritizes his visits. Lien was vice president. Before him, there are others. Lien said positive congratulatory words before huge crowd of blue supporters in KMT campaign center when Mar won. We viewed TV lives. Lien-Mar relationship becomes positive.

Thank you my friend. However, my concern is that Ma is too close to Lee and will make him a harm. Please read today's newest article on this blog.

It's Ma, not Mar. Clean government that old fart Lee said? He and his family got tons of black gold in his administration.
Lee likes to let out his gas from times to times. Ma was just trying to calm him down and warn him to stay put, before he could do any harm.

The name Wang Jinpin means "king of gold equivalency".

Peter,
不用擔心,馬英九一定會逐個拜會黨國大老的,連戰還有可能出任海基會會長呢!要擔心的可能是手上有權的立法院長王金平啊!小人在側必須時刻提防。

Hi, Catherine, thank you. Mr Ma, hurry up. I am also very concerned over Wang who is a traitor.

It is not irrational for Mrs. Ma to quite job as being a full-time first lady. Any first family of ROC, US...etc. will receive life time pension from government after term is over. The blog on First Lady Job Issue has closed its 留言 Area, therefore I leave my comments here.

周美青也面臨兩難,她既是周美青,也是馬夫人,或者可採取折衷辦法 :上午上班,下午或晚上履行總統夫人職責,這不是兩全其美嗎?這是一個在職女性的想法。

Part-time is best for many married women , not only for Mrs. Ma. The tough thing is that Taiwan job market seems not allow part-time.

周美青的工作是給予各部門法律意見,半職其實未嘗不可。

新生代,

國民黨的新生代是台灣出生的連勝文。

马英九为何拜会李登辉

马英九3月22日胜选当晚即透露,将延续“谦卑执政”的基调,并拜会台湾各界重量级人士。“请益之旅”的首站,便是与他恩怨纠缠的李登辉。
  
分析人士认为,对于马英九来说,采取“尊李”策略,至少可为未来“执政”加上三层保险:首先,李登辉在深绿阵营的教主地位,有利于马英九跨越族群、化解“省籍魔咒”。

其次,马英九主张两岸“三通”、开放观光,如获得李登辉背书,将可摆脱“卖台湾”的嫌疑,增强执行的正当性。

第三,马英九在钓鱼岛问题上的强硬态度,使日本方面对他多有疑虑,李登辉在日本的庞大人脉,将有利于修补马英九与日本的关系。




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