2月7日是農曆年初一，本文須提早動筆。執筆時，還是6日早上，仍可感到「超級星期二」選戰的激烈氣氛，觀戰人如筆者，已有這種感覺，更何況參戰人的喜萊莉、歐巴瑪和他們的支持者；在5日的一場大戰之後，他們又馬上向前看，準備迎接新一輪的戰鬥。
美聯社在5日晚上拍到喜萊莉一張神采飛揚的照片 (見本報6日頭版)，令人觀之動容，因為這張照片令人想起她在新罕布夏州投票前夕淚水盈眶的情景--那時，她因委屈 (自覺為國為民忙了數十年，卻落到面臨敗選的境地)而盈淚；現在，則因為勝利 (在超級星期二拿下紐約和加州)而神采飛揚。這種由選舉帶來的情感低迴和激昂，除了讓人看到喜萊莉的個人感情，更令人對美國總統選舉制度的神往--尤其是相比於台灣的選舉和中國大陸還未出現的選舉，它是那麼的成熟穩定。
那麼，超級星期二之後，情況會怎樣？喜萊莉與歐巴瑪這次歷史罕見的激烈競爭，將會如何結局？無論結局如何，那必然是一州一州的、持續兩個月甚至四個月的艱苦纏鬥，參選人和他們的支持者都必將為這場戰鬥而投人巨大的精神、氣力與熱情。
超級星期二的戰果已證實了一種投票趨勢--歐喜之爭已越來越成為性別之爭和族裔之爭。超級星期二的投票結果顯示，本身是白人女性的喜萊莉，在「白人女性」 (white women)這類選民中取得壓倒性的支持；本身是非裔男性的歐巴瑪，則在非裔選民方面得到壓倒性的支持，另外他也得到白人男性 (white men)的較多支持。(一名同時得到黑白兩族裔支持的參選人，竟在紐約和加州的投票中失利，可能是美國總統選舉史上的頭一次。)
西裔選民和女性選民是喜萊莉致勝的主要原因。在超級星期二的加州初選中，西裔差不多占了三分之一的票數，而喜萊莉在這類選民中以2:1的比例占到壓倒性的優勢 (即每三名西裔選民就有兩人投票給喜萊莉)；在白人女性選民中，喜萊莉也占到15%的優勢。
超級星期二的投票結果顯示，喜萊莉保住了西裔和女性這兩個票源，同時也顯示歐巴瑪未能攻進喜萊莉的這兩個堡壘。從這兩類選民來說，如果歐巴瑪要在隨後的初選中贏取提名，就非攻取這兩類選民不可，至少也要打破喜萊莉的大幅領先優勢；如果喜萊莉要在隨後的初選中贏取提名，也非要保住在這兩類選民的優勢不可。
統計數據顯示，女性選民占了全國民主黨選民的59%，所以單從女性選民數量的角度去看，喜萊莉已占有優勢。在還未舉行初選的德州和俄亥俄州，就是女性選民占了多數。
超級星期二之後，最新一輪的民主黨初選，將於本周六(9日)舉行，華盛頓、路易斯安那和內布拉斯加三州將會決出共195張黨代表票，而在下周二(12日)舉行的另外一輪民主黨初選，馬利蘭、維吉尼亞和華府三地將決出238張選舉人票。不過，這兩輪選舉估計仍無法打破歐喜之間的均勢，甚至在3月4日舉行的德州和俄州初選 (兩州共決出398張黨代表票)、以及在4月22日舉行的賓州初選 (188張黨代表票)，也可能無法分出勝負。
超級星期二的爭奪塵埃落定後，喜萊莉取得1055張黨代表票，歐巴瑪也有998張，但兩人都距離2025張的門檻甚遠(必須拿到2025張才能贏得提名)，這也是為什麼兩人之間的角逐必須延至春天(3、4月)、甚至夏天的原因。(世界日報，2.8.2008)
留言
好深的城府﹗! 深得令人害怕﹗ Hilary 忍受先生性臭聞。從Arkansas 州長的Paula Jones 到第一任﹐ 第二任的 ﹐M. Luwensky Scandals, 她都忍下來﹐ 不在公共面前當怨婦﹐ 不離婚, 等的就是這一天﹗ 她須借用先生的政治舞台﹐ 來快速搭建自己的政治舞台﹐ 快速...快速...前進白宮﹗
發表: 好深的城府﹗ | February 8, 2008 07:53 PM
I'm not ready for a black president yet.
發表: Anonymous | February 8, 2008 09:24 PM
容忍=好深的城府?What is the logic here?
發表: Catherine | February 9, 2008 02:58 AM
不當怨婦、不離婚=好深的城府﹐以這種角度和看法去看選戰令人害怕﹗
發表: Anonymous | February 9, 2008 03:21 AM
諾貝爾獎得主鐵口直斷 歐巴馬當選必遭暗殺
榮獲二零零七年諾貝爾文學獎桂冠的英國女作家多麗斯．萊辛，在瑞典報紙今天刊出的專訪中大膽預言指出，如果民主黨籍聯邦參議員歐巴馬當選下一任美國總統，勢必會遭暗殺。
高齡八十八歲的萊辛告訴瑞典「每日新聞」，正致力爭取成為美國史上首位黑人總統的歐巴馬，「肯定無法在位很久，一個黑人擔任總統，他們將會謀殺他。」
萊辛說，如果歐巴馬的民主黨陣營對手希拉蕊．柯林頓如願成為美國史上首位女性總統，情勢可能會較佳。
萊辛又說：「如果兩人（希拉蕊和歐巴馬）搭檔參選，將是最佳情況，希拉蕊是非常精明的女士，如果是她贏得大位，而非歐巴馬，情勢將會比較平靜。」
發表: copy cat | February 9, 2008 07:13 AM
如柴契爾﹐ 從多年議員到教育部長,長Prime minister, Reagan也是州長到president,﹐迢迢遠路呀﹐ 氾士丹從市長到senator,﹐連部長,vp﹐ 都還沒有﹐ 但Hilary沒有這些歷練﹐馬上就是senator﹐ 又一炮而為﹐vp candidate,爬昇的太快。如她離婚,沒有Clinton光環﹐就不會有現在。
發表: Anonymous | February 9, 2008 08:16 AM
容忍是美德﹐ 怨婦哭吼上吊﹐ 何其難看﹐ 但Hilary超越常人的容忍﹐出奇的鎮定﹐ 大家難知她胡蘆裡的膏藥, 好深的城府﹐
發表: she is smart | February 9, 2008 08:19 AM
『忍耐是一種勇氣，寬容是一種智慧』．Hilary Cliton兩者皆有，才堪大任，選她代表民主黨會好過肯亞之子歐巴瑪．
如果歐巴瑪真的當上總統，靠的是一張嘴沒什麼真本事，會和陳水扁幹的差不多的．
發表: 柯勝鷗 | February 9, 2008 09:45 AM
歐巴瑪沒總統相
發表: Anonymous | February 10, 2008 02:26 AM
My experience is that black dosen't like Chinese. In jails there are more black than any other races. Hillary supports Chinese. She will win the Democratic Party's nomination.
NYC Mayor Mike Bloombery is smart enough to wait for the outcomes of both partys' nomination. If it were Obama and McCain, Bloombery would join the race, because McCain is too old and America is not ready for a black president yet.
If it were Hillary and McCain, Bloombery would not participate, because Hillary is warm and charm and cares for working classes and monorities. McCain is a veteran and a POW. Patriotic he may be, he is a kind of hard and rigid guy. The
conservatives may vote for him. But women, latinos, Chinese, some black and some white will vote for Hillary.
America will have a first woman president. Believe it or not.
發表: Wizard of Odds | February 10, 2008 03:23 AM
黑人總統歐巴馬會糟謀殺? 美國肯定不民主.
發表: return to china | February 10, 2008 03:41 AM
John McCain不是保守派，但他是傳統男人當家派．民主黨無論是女人或是黑人，與他爭大位都佔不到便宜．不過，女人（正）加黑人．（副）就能打敗傳統男人當家派．
而麥肯若要破解柯歐組合，如能找Mike Huckabee當副手，就有希望與柯歐一搏．因為Mike Huckabee的面相很好或許能助麥肯得道．
發表: 謝天機 | February 10, 2008 07:17 AM
政治乃騙人藝術, 大騙小騙而已.
歐巴瑪靠的是一張嘴 - 騙.
發表: 騙子 | February 10, 2008 01:55 PM
I agree with 柯勝鷗. I wish Obama is not 騙子. NO, never.
發表: Anonymous | February 10, 2008 04:37 PM
I will not vote for Obama because of the same reason "Wizard of Odds" have just mentioned, however because of Hilary's stance on the war in Iraq, I will not vote for her neither. (BTW, anyone who has the normal IQ would not believe a word she said about how she was “mis-leaded” by the Bush’s government) And of course, I will certainly not going to give my vote to the republican (to me, all the republican - except Ron Paul, can kiss my ass than go the hell).
So there will be no one left for me to vote for, therefore I will be just watching this election on the sideline and beginning to ponder what another 4 or 8 years of hell will be like!
發表: 樂觀者 | February 10, 2008 04:43 PM
假釋出獄 程翔盼『回報社會』 ( http://www.worldjournal.com/wj-ch-news.php?nt_seq_id=1668431 )
【臺灣『中央社』香港電】農曆年前獲中國大陸政府假釋的香港『新聞工作者』程翔返港後一直沒有公開露面，其妻子劉敏儀今天表示，程翔出事後促使他有更大『使命感』，他今後要完成未完成的『工作』以『回報社會』，. . . 這次被捕入獄反而促使他有更大的使命感，覺得還有很多『未完成的工作』，希望能『回報社會的厚恩』。
【評】一個外國間諜要怎樣『回報』中國人的社會，不用講也明白啦。 我呸！
發表: 曾蔭權 | February 10, 2008 04:59 PM
To Happy watcher:
It's your duty to vote. If you can't decide which one, toss a coin.
發表: Anonymous | February 10, 2008 11:19 PM
I did toss a coin. It was for Bush all right. Maybe this is the way the fate runs, like it or not.
發表: Anonymous | February 10, 2008 11:25 PM
I like Mr.謝天機's prediction. Overall, my feeling is it is Democrat's turn to rule the country after the Republicans made major mistakes in Iraq. Plus California will be Democrat's unless Ronald Reagan returns to run. Reagan was the only Republican in the past many years who took California.
發表: Luen Lin | February 11, 2008 12:12 AM
香港未完成的工作是民選
曾蔭權是騙子
發表: honkong fooyee | February 11, 2008 02:08 AM
好深的城府:
喜萊莉是Hillary不是Hilary
發表: Klinton | February 11, 2008 02:15 AM
I agree with Doris Lessing多麗斯．萊辛.
發表: Emily | February 11, 2008 04:03 AM
To Anonymous:
It is my duty to vote, ONLY if there is a selection of "none-of-the-above" on the ballot - just as in the school examinations, otherwise I will just stay home on November 2nd, because no democratic government can force its citizens to elect someone he/she does not like - there is no law against being abstention, isn't it?
And if I must toss a coin to decide which candidate (between Hilary, Obama, or McCain) I want to elect - I will probably toss the damn coin into the gutter! (this is how I disgusted of the candidates which both parties presented to us)
Anyway, go Ron Paul!
發表: 樂觀者 | February 11, 2008 07:36 AM
一個是特區『騙子』，另外一個是外國間諜，wonder who does more harm to the nation of China？
發表: 香港腐f乳 | February 11, 2008 07:56 AM
The girl's name "Hilary" \hi-la-ry\ is pronounced HILL-a-ree. It is of Latin origin, and its meaning is "cheerful, happy". The name comes from the same root as "hilarious".
"Hilary" has 7 variant forms: "Hilaire", "Hilaria", "Hilarie", "Hilary", "Hillary", "Hillery" and "Hilliary".
http://www.thinkbabynames.com/meaning/0/Hilary
-----------------
So, lets not get to excessively meticulous, all right (or, all right)?
發表: 香港腐f乳 | February 11, 2008 08:17 AM
By the way, if this Doris Lessing - a Nobel Laureate in Literature 2007, has any credibility at all, here is what she said in an interview on June 1999: "Before I went to China I was told that the Chinese wouldn't talk about politics, but that wasn't true. I was there with Margaret Drabble and Michael Holroyd, and we found that the Chinese were very open and apparently fearless. They spoke critically about the cultural revolution. There was no one looking over his or her shoulder expecting an arrest".
( http://www.dorislessing.org/theprogressive.html )
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Damn it, here goes our anti-Chinese propaganda!
發表: KKK | February 11, 2008 09:25 AM
香港腐乳:
I like the spicy kind of fermented bean curd. Don't know what kind of BC you are.
Alright and "all right" are interchangeable.
Colour in English becomes "color" in America, and cheque becomes "Check".
Were you educated in UK or in US or both. Man (or woman), You've got it all mixed up.
I see trees of green....red roses too....I see them bloom for me and for you....And I think to myself....what a wonderful world....
She uses Hillary Clinton for her Senator position and for the 2008 White House Campaign.
Don't get so uptight. Loose your buckle a little. China has promised Hong Kong free election in 2017. Just don't know how free it's gonna be....
發表: Swiss Cheese | February 11, 2008 09:59 AM
Doris Blessing spent some years in her youth with her parents in Zimbawe, running a plantation. So she knew something about black people. Don't be stupid to assassinate anyone, KKK. Don't hate Chinese either. Whitemen are no more supreme. All men are created equal - guranteed by the Constitution.
I see skies of blue...clouds of white...Bright blessed days and dark sacred nights.......It's a wonderful world.
If it were a self inflicted wound, it would be cheating. Like Chen Suie Bien did it to himself(or his comrad did it to him) in the 2004 presidential campaign in Taiwan.
發表: YKK | February 11, 2008 10:18 AM
If you threw the coin into a gutter, it would be a violation of law. The coin is not damned either. Love GW, or JFK, or FDR, or whoever is on the coin.
發表: Anonymous | February 11, 2008 02:34 PM
喜萊莉連失5州，看來未能保住西裔和女性這兩個票源和優勢，令人失望。
發表: Sylvia | February 12, 2008 12:55 AM
When Hillary becomes the president, Bill Clinton is asked, "What's the difference between greeting the Queen of the UK and the president of the US?"
He replies, "You only have to get on one knee to greet the Queen...".
發表: Anonymous | February 12, 2008 02:46 AM
The tide is changing. Obama has exceeded Hillary in Democratic primary so far. If it became Obama and McCain to run for the presidency, Michael Bloomberg, the New York City Mayor, would join the race. Then I'll vote for Bloomberg.
發表: New Yorker | February 13, 2008 09:47 AM
Hey Swiss Cheese,
Me being uptight? You idiot, you are the one with a tight ass! It was you who nitpicking on『好深的城府』on something that was so trivial but not even relevant to the topic which is discussing here, remember that?
And so what, if Hilary is using "Hillary" for her senator position and her presidential campaign - the entire world still referring her husband as "Bill Clinton" instead of "William Jefferson Clinton", which was the name he used to sworn in as the President of United States. Are you gonna start writing to every US government branch, newspaper, and television station to correct their "mistakes"?
Furthermore, peoples are here to voice their opinion on certain topic, and whether their English is perfect or not is not even important - as long as the message is conveyed. Thus, there is no need to call out someone and make a big fuss because he/she mis-spell or mispronounce a person's names - after all, we are not the newspaper reporters or editors.
(BTW may I suggest to you, try boxer shorts instead of female panties, would you :))
發表: 豆腐花 | February 14, 2008 01:11 AM
Hey YKK,
The Ku Klux Klan can not read Chinese, and they don't post here. Now go look up the word "sarcasm".
發表: Israeli Naz | February 14, 2008 01:12 AM
If I said the coin is damn, it is damned - end of story, and it is in the gutter. Now you can be ridiculous and go call the police, idiot!
發表: coin tosser | February 14, 2008 01:14 AM
I prefer rotten (tso) toufu to toufu flower.
Nazi without i is like crazy without y.
Better toss a coin with Mao Zedong portrait on it.
發表: swiss cheese | February 14, 2008 01:47 AM